A rigorous EPR cost model does two things: it tells you what you owe now, and it tells you what you'll owe in 2030 under different packaging and volume scenarios. This article walks through the full modelling framework — inputs, calculations, scenario structure, and 2030 projection methodology.
A complete EPR cost model has four layers:
Layer 1: Packaging data — what materials, what weights, per SKU
Layer 2: Sales data — units per country per period
Layer 3: Rate data — PRO rates by material, by country, adjusted for eco-modulation
Layer 4: Scenario overlays — volume growth, packaging changes, 2030 regulatory changes
Each layer feeds into the next. Getting Layer 1 right is the most important step; the rest is arithmetic.
Build a packaging inventory table. Every packaging component gets a row:
| Component ID | Description | Material | Polymer/grade | Weight (g) | Recycled content % | PPWR recyclability status | SKU applicability |
|--------------|-------------|---------|---------------|-----------|-------------------|--------------------------|------------------|
| P001 | Outer box 320×240×150 | Paper/cardboard | Corrugated, B-flute | 185 | 40% PCR | Grade A | All |
| P002 | Tissue wrap (2 sheets) | Paper | Kraft | 28 | 0% | Grade A | All |
| P003 | Air pillow | LDPE | Film, 40 micron | 12 | 0% | Grade C/D | Fragile SKUs |
| P004 | Product jar 100ml | Glass | Clear soda-lime | 95 | 0% | Grade A | SKU A001–A015 |
| P005 | PP lid for jar | PP | Rigid | 8 | 0% | Grade B | SKU A001–A015 |
| P006 | Paper label | Paper | Adhesive kraft | 3 | 0% | Grade A | All |
| P007 | BOPP tape | BOPP (plastic) | Film | 6 | 0% | Grade B/C | All |
Key principles:
You need units sold per country for each period (calendar year). Format:
| Country | Year | Orders/units | Avg packaging mix |
|---------|------|-------------|------------------|
| DE | 2026 | 8,400 | Standard mix |
| FR | 2026 | 5,200 | Standard mix |
| NL | 2026 | 2,800 | Standard mix |
| IT | 2026 | 1,900 | Standard mix |
| ES | 2026 | 1,400 | Standard mix |
| BE | 2026 | 900 | Standard mix |
| AT | 2026 | 600 | Standard mix |
For brands with significantly different packaging per product line (e.g., glass-heavy premium line vs. plastic-heavy everyday line), split sales data by product category, not just by country.
Below are 2026 indicative base rates by material, per tonne. These are midpoint estimates; actual rates from your PRO contracts will override these.
| Market | Corrugated/uncoated | Coated/laminated | Kraft/tissue |
|--------|--------------------|--------------------|-------------|
| DE | 73 | 90 | 70 |
| FR | 123 | 150 | 118 |
| NL | 95 | 110 | 90 |
| IT | 105 | 125 | 100 |
| ES | 88 | 105 | 85 |
| BE | 118 | 140 | 112 |
| AT | 125 | 148 | 118 |
| Market | LDPE film | HDPE rigid | PP rigid | PET (clear) | EPS | BOPP/other film |
|--------|-----------|-----------|---------|------------|-----|----------------|
| DE | 220 | 150 | 165 | 130 | 260 | 200 |
| FR | 350 | 230 | 260 | 200 | 450 | 330 |
| NL | 240 | 175 | 195 | 155 | 300 | 225 |
| IT | 260 | 190 | 210 | 175 | 320 | 245 |
| ES | 210 | 165 | 180 | 150 | 270 | 198 |
| BE | 310 | 220 | 250 | 190 | 380 | 290 |
| AT | 280 | 205 | 225 | 175 | 340 | 265 |
| Market | Clear | Coloured |
|--------|-------|---------|
| DE | 13 | 18 |
| FR | 17 | 24 |
| NL | 11 | 15 |
| IT | 10 | 14 |
| ES | 12 | 17 |
| BE | 19 | 26 |
| AT | 12 | 17 |
| Market | Steel | Aluminium |
|--------|-------|-----------|
| DE | 43 | 73 |
| FR | 73 | 108 |
| NL | 53 | 83 |
| IT | 50 | 80 |
| ES | 45 | 72 |
| BE | 65 | 98 |
| AT | 65 | 110 |
Apply a threshold override: if total NL packaging weight < 50,000 kg, set all NL fees to €0 (no participation fee applies; record this with a flag in the model so you can monitor approach to threshold).
For each country × material combination:
`
Total weight (kg) = SUM across all components of:
(Component weight in grams / 1000) × (Units sold in country that use this component)
Fee before modulation = Total weight (kg) / 1000 × Rate (€/tonne)
Eco-modulation factor = 1.0 [baseline] + surcharge/discount from modulation assessment
Fee after modulation = Fee before modulation × Eco-modulation factor
`
Sum across all materials for each country → country total.
Sum across all countries → total EU EPR fee.
Add modulation factors as a separate column in the rate table. Start with your current assessment:
| Component | Material | France modulation | Germany modulation | Belgium modulation |
|-----------|---------|------------------|-------------------|-------------------|
| Air pillow | LDPE film | 1.0 (no formal surcharge yet) | 1.0 | 1.15 (film surcharge) |
| EPS foam | EPS | 1.5 (surcharge) | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Dark colour PP | PP dark | 1.25 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| High recycled content cardboard | Paper | 0.85 (bonus) | 0.90 | 0.95 |
Adjust these factors based on your actual PRO contracts, where eco-modulation rates are specified. The table above is indicative.
Current packaging, current volumes, 2026 rates. This is your actual EPR bill for the filing year.
Apply your revenue growth forecast by country. If you project 25% EU revenue growth per year:
This tells you your EPR cost trajectory if you change nothing.
This is the most important scenario for strategic planning. Model what happens when:
PPWR eco-modulation surcharges take effect (2030):
Recycled content mandatory minimums (2030):
Volume growth (apply 3-year CAGR to your 2027 figures to get 2030 volumes):
The 2030 scenario should show your EPR bill 3–4 years out if you change nothing vs. if you execute the packaging transition roadmap.
For each packaging redesign option:
The difference between baseline and transition scenario = annual EPR saving from that change.
Brand profile:
2026 baseline EPR fee (all markets):
| Market | Cardboard (€) | LDPE (€) | Glass (€) | PP (€) | Other plastic (€) | Paper (€) | Total (€) |
|--------|--------------|----------|----------|-------|------------------|-----------|----|
| DE | 115 | 22 | 49 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 13 | 212 |
| FR | 216 | 35 | 47 | 8.8 | 12 | 21 | 340 |
| NL | €0 | €0 | €0 | €0 | €0 | €0 | €0 (below threshold) |
| IT | 95 | 12 | 19 | 3.8 | 5 | 9.5 | 144 |
| ES | 74 | 9 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 7.8 | 115 |
| BE | 68 | 9 | 12 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 102 |
| AT | 50 | 6.7 | 9 | 2 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 75 |
| Total | 618 | 94 | 153 | 26 | 35 | 62 | 988 |
2026 total EPR fee: ~€988/year
2030 scenario (current packaging, projected growth):
Apply 25% annual growth, 3 years compound = 1.95× volumes.
Apply 2030 eco-modulation: LDPE air pillow → +75% surcharge (to 1.75×).
2030 projection (no packaging change): ~€2,100/year
2030 scenario (packaging redesign — switch LDPE pillow to paper honeycomb):
LDPE component removed → paper honeycomb at 15g per order → paper rate
2030 fees with redesign: ~€1,960/year
Annual saving vs. no-redesign 2030: ~€140/year (small in absolute terms — LDPE pillow is a minor component)
The model is most valuable for brands with higher plastic content packaging where the 2030 surcharge scenario is much more impactful.
Annual budget: Run the baseline scenario at year-start to set your EPR reserve. Adjust mid-year if volumes deviate significantly from plan.
Investor reporting: For brands with investors, the 2030 EPR cost projection under current vs. redesigned scenarios demonstrates proactive management of a growing regulatory cost.
PRO negotiations (Germany): In Germany, PROs compete for your contract. Running the model with two different PROs' rate cards lets you compare total cost and make an informed choice.
Audit readiness: A documented model serves as supporting evidence for your annual PRO declarations — showing how you calculated reported volumes.
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For the regulatory changes that drive the 2030 scenario, see Recyclability grades A–E and EPR fee impact and Mandatory recycled content targets.